Karmona Pragmatic Blog

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people who are worst at a task show the most illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average (e.g. “shut up I hack you“ :)

Justin Kruger & David Dunning have tested and verified the following predictions:

• Incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own ability and performance 
• Incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others (it takes one to know one ;)
• Incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy (“One puzzling aspect of our results is how the incompetent fail, through life experience, to learn that they are unskilled”)
• If they can be trained to substantially improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill (There is still some hope)

Do you have the confidence that this post isn’t about you? 

Think again… (!!!) - “ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge” (Charles Darwin)

Do you think this post is about you?

Might be considered vain but interesting enough, the same research have shown that the top performers tended to underestimate their own performance compared to their peers (see chart below). 

So… if you find this post boring, obscure, stupid, annoying, poorly written or inappropriate than please keep in mind it isn’t something I have committed knowingly.

When “The Moscow Cats Theater” came to New York, the Russian clown Yuri Kuklachev was interviewed:  “the secret of training them is realizing that you can’t force cats to do anything [...] If the cat likes to sit you can’t force her to do anything else [...] Each cat likes to do her own trick [...] Maruska is the only one who does the handstand. I find the cat and see what they like to do and use that in the show [...] I have a cat now that loves to be in the water…”

– REUTERS, 2006

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Personally, I think that managing engineers is much more complicated than herding cats (although I didn’t have the twisted pleasure to herd a cat yet)

When you go out of your way to hire the best people around than soon enough you will find yourself herding a superior, class A, hyper-developed mutant Ligers* who are much more knowledgeable than the herder (a.k.a. you)

In this environment you have to learn to simply trust your people (although this is not simple at all :), mark the vision, let them loose and only help to get rid of the stones in their way (this concept was best described as the Open Kimono** policy in Peopleware)

Well…. Managing the Delver Engineers is like Herding Legendary Ligers and you need to make a superior effort to see what these ligers “likes to do” and run fast enough to set the Vision and move the rocks out of the way.

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* The Liger, is a (huge) hybrid cross between a male lion and a female tiger

** Open Kimono Attitude: You take no steps to defend yourself from the people you have put in positions of trust.

By the way, The best answer I found on the origin of the term “Herding Cats” was in Google Answers

Dunbar’s number is the supposed cognitive limit to the number of individuals with whom any one person can maintain stable social relationships.
In a 1992 article, Dunbar used the correlation observed for non-human primates* to predict a social group size for humans and using a “simple” regression equation on data for 38 primate genera, Dunbar predicted a human “mean group size” of 150 (with 95% confidence interval of 100 to 230).

Dunbar’s Friends is my definition (and trademark ;-) to those few “real”, trusted and known people in your huge** online social network***.

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* Primatologists have noted that, due to their highly social nature, non-human primates have to maintain personal contact with the other members of their social group, usually through grooming (and not “poking” as you might be expecting :-). The number of social group members a primate can track appears to be limited by the volume of the neocortex region of their brain.

** Did you know that Robert Scoble is following 21,060 people in Twitter, 2,992 in FriendFeed and only 71 “lousy” friends in Flickr…

*** Social Network for Dummies – Lee and Sachi LeFever (a.k.a. the CommonCraft‘s family :) have created a wonderful video explaining social network in plain English.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau Y2K statistics (accuse me for being nostalgic but this is as good as it gets until 2010)

* 7 most common Americans surnames are Smith, Johnson, Williams, Brown, Jones, Miller or Davis.

* 4 million surnames  are held by only one person.

…

* This can be very helpful when you are trying to guess someone name… with ~2,376,206 Smiths, I suggest Mr. Smith.

* This could be problematic when you are looking for Mary or James Smith and all you have is the name…

* Moti Karmona isn’t even there ;-)

I have an old, sentimental newspaper-article-cut claiming “pessimistic hi-tech employees are more productive than their optimistic peers” hanging on my office wall.

In this context, last summer I wrote, coined and trademarked the Pessimistic Developer Paradigm.

Early this week I have interviewed a very interesting dude* who saw this old article hanging on my office and introduced this amazing poem by Robert Graves which I must share in this pessimistic context…

In Broken Images (by Robert Graves)

He is quick, thinking in clear images;
I am slow, thinking in broken images.

He becomes dull, trusting to his clear images;
I become sharp, mistrusting my broken images.

Trusting his images, he assumes their relevance;
Mistrusting my images, I question their relevance.

Assuming their relevance, he assumes the fact;
Questioning their relevance, I question their fact.

When the fact fails him, he questions his senses;
when the fact fails me, I approve my senses.

He continues quick and dull in his clear images;
I continue slow and sharp in my broken images.

He in a new confusion of his understanding;
I in a new understanding of my confusion.

* Thanks Tomer and Good Luck!